Since mid-January 2025, global oil prices have been on a steady decline—hitting their lowest point since December 2021. This drop coincides with Donald Trump’s return to the White House, bringing renewed focus on energy independence and domestic production in the U.S.
Trump’s Energy Policy Targets $50 Oil
President Trump’s policies aim to boost U.S. oil production, with the explicit goal of bringing crude prices down to around $50 per barrel. This strategic move has had an immediate impact on global oil markets, contributing to falling prices and reshaping the dynamics of energy trade.
OPEC Shifts Strategy: Production Increase Announced
In a surprising move, OPEC announced a production increase of 120,000 barrels per day each month, starting in April 2025 and continuing for 18 months. This marks a shift from the group’s previous stance of limiting output to stabilize prices. The result? Greater pressure on oil-exporting nations, particularly in Africa.
African Oil Producers Face Growing Pressure
Several African nations—Nigeria, Angola, Libya, Algeria, and Egypt—are feeling the squeeze of falling oil revenues. For many, oil exports remain a cornerstone of economic activity and fiscal stability.
Nigeria
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Oil exports make up roughly 10% of GDP.
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While growth forecasts remain positive, low prices could undermine public spending, investment, and foreign exchange earnings.
Angola
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With 28% of GDP tied to oil, Angola is particularly vulnerable.
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The government is doubling down on new oil block auctions after its exit from OPEC in December 2023, seeking to maintain output at 1.1 million barrels/day.
Algeria
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Algeria’s ambitions to expand oil production are now at risk.
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Falling prices threaten the viability of new exploration and infrastructure projects.
Libya
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Despite ongoing security challenges, Libya aims to auction new oil blocks and hit a target of 2 million barrels/day by 2027.
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The price environment, however, could complicate investment and investor confidence.
Egypt
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As a net energy exporter, Egypt also faces budgetary strains from decreased oil revenue, though its diversified economy offers some resilience.
Trade Tensions Create New Openings
Paradoxically, Trump’s trade tensions with China and Canada may offer opportunities for African oil producers. With tariffs affecting Canadian oil, some U.S. and Chinese buyers are exploring African suppliers to bypass trade restrictions—creating short-term export opportunities for African nations.
The Waning Influence of OPEC?
OPEC’s share of global oil production has declined sharply—from 55% in 1970 to just 34.7% in 2020. While its influence on global pricing has weakened, the cartel remains a key lobbying platform for oil producers, particularly in Africa. Despite Angola’s exit, OPEC still shapes the broader conversation around oil market coordination.
Looking Ahead
The global oil market is entering a new phase of volatility. While Trump’s policies are reshaping the supply side, African oil producers must navigate falling prices, shifting trade flows, and a more competitive landscape. For countries highly reliant on crude exports, the coming months will require bold strategies—balancing short-term survival with long-term energy planning.